OPEC+ has agreed to increase its collective oil production by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in June. This decision marks the alliance’s first official gathering since the sudden and historic departure of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the cartel on May 1. The newly announced supply boost is slightly lower than the 206,000 bpd increase implemented in May, reflecting the exclusion of the UAE’s production share.

The production adjustment will be carried out by seven key member nations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. This move comes amid severe disruptions to global energy supplies caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which began on February 28. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for international oil and gas transit, keeping Middle Eastern exports heavily restricted.

Despite the supply constraints, global oil prices experienced a downward turn late in the week following news that Iran had submitted an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan. U.S. crude futures dropped 3% to close at $101.94 per barrel, while Brent crude fell nearly 2% to settle at $108.17. Even with this temporary relief, both benchmarks remain roughly 78% higher than their levels at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he is reviewing the framework of a potential deal with Iran but cautioned that military action remains on the table if negotiations falter.

The loss of the UAE, which was OPEC’s third-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, continues to reverberate through global energy markets. The Gulf nation ended its nearly six-decade membership after a comprehensive internal review concluded that exiting the cartel best served its long-term national interests and production capacity goals.

Key Takeaways

• OPEC+ will raise oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in June, a slight decrease from May's hike due to the UAE's departure.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, keeping global oil supplies tight.
• Crude prices dipped slightly to around $102 (WTI) and $108 (Brent) on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran.

Editor’s Analysis & Impact

The departure of the UAE from OPEC+ represents a structural shift in the global oil landscape. As the cartel’s third-largest producer, the UAE’s exit weakens the group’s collective market-pricing power and signals growing friction over production quotas. Meanwhile, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to inject a massive risk premium into energy markets, keeping prices elevated near historic highs despite recent diplomatic overtures. If the proposed peace deal between the U.S. and Iran materializes, it could reopen vital shipping lanes and unleash a wave of supply, potentially driving crude prices back down. However, until a formal agreement is signed, the market remains highly volatile, and OPEC+’s modest 188,000 bpd increase will do little to offset the broader geopolitical supply deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did the UAE leave OPEC+?
A: The UAE officially exited the cartel on May 1 after a comprehensive review of its production policy, concluding that leaving the group was in its national interest to maximize its independent production capacity.

Q: How has the conflict with Iran affected global oil prices?
A: The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, choking off Middle Eastern exports and driving oil prices up by approximately 78% since the beginning of 2026.

Q: Which countries participated in the latest OPEC+ production decision?
A: The decision was made by seven remaining major producers: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.