OpenAI has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become the first major private AI company to go public, according to traders on prediction market platforms. After reports surfaced that OpenAI could confidentially file for an initial public offering as early as this week, betting markets shifted dramatically, now giving the ChatGPT creator an 83 percent chance of beating its chief private rival, Anthropic, to the public markets.

Prior to the IPO timeline reports, traders had largely favored Anthropic, giving it a roughly 70 percent probability of debuting first. On Kalshi, OpenAI’s chances jumped from around 32 percent to 83 percent in a matter of days. On Polymarket, the odds that Anthropic would reach public markets before OpenAI plummeted from 69 percent to just 20 percent. Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research, underscored the significance of being first to market. Getting to public markets first, he said, is critical in an intensifying AI arms race because it sets a valuation benchmark and gives the company a first-mover advantage with investors.

Despite the momentum, OpenAI has faced headwinds that have dampened investor enthusiasm. Concerns over the company’s spending, missed revenue and growth targets, and leadership turnover have weighed on sentiment. Internal disagreements over the timing of a public debut have also surfaced, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly pushing for a faster IPO than CFO Sarah Friar. Meanwhile, Anthropic has seen explosive growth driven by its enterprise business and a series of widely followed model updates for its Claude product line. The company is reportedly in discussions with investors for a new funding round that could value it at $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s most recent valuation. Anthropic had briefly taken the lead in prediction markets earlier this year, particularly after reports of a powerful new model called Claude Mythos and indications the company was targeting an October IPO.

With the IPO filing now seemingly imminent and a favorable court ruling against Elon Musk this week, analysts see a potential turning point for OpenAI. Ives described the combination of winning the lawsuit and moving forward with the IPO as a strong one-two punch that could help extinguish the negative sentiment that has surrounded the company.