Investment firm Bernstein estimates that by 2030, prediction sector volumes will surge to roughly $1 trillion. 

Dollar volumes on the markets surged in 2024, spurred by the U.S. presidential election, then expanded further in 2025 thanks to sports, crypto and macro/political contracts. 

While a regulatory battle is brewing, Bernstein thinks it’s unlikely to deter long-term growth. 

Prediction marketplace volumes are booming in 2026, on pace to more than quadruple this year alone and reach an estimated $1 trillion in the next four years, according to Bernstein.

Volumes have already surged in the first few months of this year, the investment bank wrote in a report Tuesday, with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest platforms, seeing about $60 billion in marketplace volume year-to-date — more than the $51 billion in total prediction marketplace volume in all of 2025.

Growth rates for the platforms rival the artificial intelligence boom, according to Bank of America. Analyst Julie Hoover in a note last week called Kalshi one of the “fastest growing non-AI companies” in the U.S. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi — which controls more than 90% of the U.S. prediction economy — has surged to more than $3 billion today from about $100 million a year ago, she wrote.

While prediction sector volumes initially jumped in 2024 around the U.S. presidential election, they eventually surpassed those levels in 2025 as sports, cryptocurrency and macroeconomic contracts became popular.

$1 trillion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani now estimates that total economy volumes in 2026 will reach $240 billion, a 370% boost compared to last year. At a compound annual growth rate of roughly 80% between 2025 and 2030, Chhugani sees prediction marketplace trading volume of $1 trillion a year by the start of the next decade.  

Chhugani expects increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will boost the potential industry, and that blockchain tokenization and integration with cryptocurrencies is enabling more liquidity. The makeup of traded contracts is also likely to change, he noted.

“We expect [the] institutional economy to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” he wrote. While sports contracts produce up more than 60% of trading volume today, he sees that being cut in half by 2030. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates, [and] insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

While Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the space, updated names are building a presence. Robinhood, DraftKings and Underdog are all starting or have already launched their own prediction marketplace verticals, Bank of America’s Hoover commented.

Public proxies

Robinhood and Coinbase Global are the key public sector proxies for the private prediction marketplace companies, Chhugani stated. Robinhood’s prediction markets hub is now a year old, generating $350 million in annual recurring revenue, and accounting for some 30% of Kalshi total volume. The marketplace is the digital finance platform’s fastest-growing business, and could encourage Robinhood to develop its own exchange, the analyst said. 

While Chhugani’s long-range estimates assume the resolution of long-term regulatory risk, in the near-term state and federal regulators and the prediction markets themselves are engaged in a pitched battle. “Legal action is now pending in 14 states, plus another 4 congressional bills [are] also pending amid concerns around insider trading,” Hoover wrote. 

Some states have begun legal action against prediction markets, citing their authority to regulate sports betting, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is fighting states, claiming it has the only authority to regulate prediction markets.  This also touches on aspects of investors.

Still, Chhugani has faith that this won’t derail the multi-year outlook.

“Despite ongoing state-level legal challenges, we expect platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and public proxies (HOOD, COIN) to benefit from increasing regulatory clarity and growing alignment with federal regulators (SEC, CFTC) — a key driver of economy legitimacy and mainstream adoption,” he wrote.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes a CNBC minority investment.

Markets shift and headlines fade, but the core principles of building long-term wealth remain constant. Join us for our third CNBC Pro LIVE, where investors of all backgrounds – from financial professionals to everyday individuals – come together to cut through the noise and gain actionable strategies for smarter, more disciplined investing. No matter where you’re starting from, you’ll leave with clearer thinking, stronger strategies. Enter your email here to get a discount code