Oil prices fell after Trump revealed a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

The truce raised hopes for broader peace talks across the region.

ING warned that Hormuz disruptions were still keeping physical oil markets tight.

Oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that the war in Iran “should be ending pretty soon,” while a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon raised hopes of easing supply disruptions.

U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery fell 1.44% to $93.33 per barrel. International benchmark Brent for June delivery declined 1.29% to $98.1 per barrel.

Trump on Thursday commented that “the war in Iran is going along swimmingly,” reiterating rosy predictions about the end of the war that began on Feb. 28.

Hours earlier, Trump mentioned in a Truth Social post that a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is set to begin at 5 p.m. ET.

He added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun would be invited to the White House for what he described as the first meaningful talks between the two countries since 1983. 

The U.S. State Department stated both sides aimed to create conditions for lasting peace, including mutual recognition of sovereignty. The department stated the effort included improved border security and reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defense.

Trump stated he expects Lebanon to “take care of Hezbollah,” the Iran-backed militant group. The developments raised hopes of a broader resolution to the Middle East conflict.

Oil prices were drifting lower on expectations that the U.S. and Iran could extend their ceasefire by another two weeks and potentially resume talks to end the conflict, ING said. 

“the physical industry is becoming tighter every day that passes without a restart of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING analysts mentioned in a note.

Even accounting for pipeline rerouting and limited tanker movements, ING estimates roughly , on the other hand13 million barrels per day of supply has been disrupted, a figure that could rise further under a U.S. blockade. 

“The key upside risk for the economy is that peace talks between the US and Iran break down. This isn’t an unrealistic scenario, given that US and Iranian demands remain fairly wide apart.” This also touches on aspects of bear market.