Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March, as expected; GDP grew 2% in first quarter

Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a novel level of challenges for the Federal Reserve, according to a batch of reports Thursday that showed economic growth slower than expected and a generational low in layoffs.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The readings matched the Dow Jones consensus estimates. Core inflation hit its highest level since November 2023. Furthermore, experts in bear market note the continued relevance.

Including the volatile gas and groceries components saw higher readings, with the monthly gain at 0.7% and the annual rate hitting 3.5%, also in line with forecasts.

In other economic news Thursday,In the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 but lower than the 2.2% estimate. The modest growth rate came despite a seeming surge in spending on artificial intelligence and what should have been a boost from the end of last year’s government shutdown.

Also, the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 189,000 for the week ending April 25, a decline of 26,000 from the prior week and well below the 212,000 estimate. It was the lowest reading in decades for a labor industry that has been in a low-hire low-fire mode for most of the past year.

“This is a split-screen economy,” noted Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “Companies and investors involved in AI are on fire. Meanwhile, middle and moderate income households are struggling with high gas prices and inflation that’s back at the hottest level in three years.”

The data comes a day after the Federal Open Marketplace Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting arm, voted to hold interest rates steady again. The vote came with four dissents, reflecting disagreements within the Fed over the proper setting of monetary policy and how to react to economic cross currents that include inflation above target now for five years running and a stabilizing labor sector.

Three regional presidents were among the four votes against the post, on the other hand-meeting FOMC statement. They objected to phrasing that implied the next move for rates would be lower.

The inflation report indicated that the bulk of the price pressure came from goods, which rose 1.4%, boosted by an 11.6% surge in energy goods and services. Services prices overall rose 0.3%. This also touches on aspects of bear market.

The rise in energy prices appeared to cut into consumer spending.

personal spending increased just 1.6, according to the GDP tally% for the month as outlays for goods decreased 0.1%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a more detailed yardstick for consumer demand, accelerated 2.5%.

A 4.4% growth in government spending, including a 9.3% rise at the federal level, contributed to the quarterly gains.

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