Global oil prices experienced mixed movements on Thursday, reacting to significant reports from major energy organizations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning of increased volatility ahead, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised down its global oil demand forecast for the year. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July delivery saw a slight increase, trading 0.3% higher at $105.93 per barrel. Conversely, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June delivery registered a modest decline of 0.2%, settling at $100.83 per barrel.

The IEA underscored the severe impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global oil supply. It highlighted that more than ten weeks into the conflict, mounting supply losses, particularly from the critical Strait of Hormuz, are depleting global oil inventories at an unprecedented rate. Total supply cuts from Gulf producers now exceed 14 million barrels per day, contributing to an overall loss of over a billion barrels. The agency anticipates that this situation will likely lead to greater price volatility as the peak summer demand season approaches, exacerbating market uncertainties.

Adding to the complex market picture, OPEC confirmed a substantial drop in its own production. Output fell by 1.7 million barrels per day in April, marking a decline of over 30%, or 9.7 million barrels per day, since the conflict began in late February. Furthermore, OPEC adjusted its long-term demand growth estimates, cutting its 2026 forecast to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day from the previous 1.4 million barrels per day. The cartel’s latest monthly update is also notable as it is expected to be the final one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, following its departure from the organization on May 1.

Market observers are closely monitoring the interplay between these supply disruptions, demand adjustments, and broader geopolitical developments. Analysts suggest that the duration of elevated fuel prices remains highly dependent on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, including the potential for further damage to oil and gas infrastructure and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. High-level diplomatic engagements, such as the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, are also keenly watched, especially given China’s significant reliance on oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.