The recent successful initial public offering (IPO) of Cerebras Systems has injected a significant dose of excitement into the technology sector, particularly for investors keen on artificial intelligence. Cerebras, an AI chipmaker, saw its shares surge by nearly 70% on their market debut, propelling its valuation to approximately $95 billion. This performance marks one of the largest IPOs of the year and the most substantial offering by a U.S. tech company since Uber’s market entry in 2019, signaling a potential thawing of the IPO market after a prolonged lull.

However, the triumphant debut of Cerebras also casts a long shadow over the prospects of other companies seeking to go public. The overwhelming investor attention is currently fixated on a trio of tech titans: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. These entities, each commanding valuations nearing or exceeding $1 trillion, are reportedly in various stages of preparing for their own IPOs. SpaceX, in particular, is anticipated to submit its IPO prospectus imminently, following its recent merger with xAI which valued the combined company at an astounding $1.25 trillion. The sheer scale of these anticipated offerings threatens to dwarf all other potential public debuts, making it exceedingly difficult for smaller or less prominent tech firms to capture market interest.

The current IPO landscape presents a clear division between ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots,’ according to industry analysts. Companies with a strong, demonstrable narrative in artificial intelligence are finding receptive audiences, while those without a significant AI component are struggling to attract attention. This dynamic is largely attributed to the market’s current obsession with generative AI, a trend that has overshadowed many established software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies whose business models might be perceived as vulnerable to AI disruption. Consequently, many high-value startups are adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, hoping that the successful launches of giants like SpaceX and OpenAI will pave the way for broader market acceptance.

The market’s focus on AI is further amplified by the performance of companies within the semiconductor industry, which is currently experiencing a renaissance driven by AI demand. Cerebras itself benefits from this trend, claiming its proprietary chips outperform those from industry leaders like Nvidia. While Cerebras’s own successes, including significant deals with OpenAI and Amazon Web Services, provide a crucial data point for the market, the looming presence of trillion-dollar IPOs suggests that the path forward for most pre-IPO companies remains exceptionally challenging. The fear is that any company attempting to go public alongside these behemoths risks being completely overshadowed, leading to a concentration of capital and attention on a select few.