ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast and stated it expects sales to be between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros for the year.

ASML is often seen as a bellwether for chip demand as it makes the tools required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors. Furthermore, experts in investors note the continued relevance.

The Dutch chip giant is facing headwinds in China due to export restrictions.

ASML on Wednesday raised its sales forecast for 2026 after it beat first-quarter revenue and gains expectations, driven by continued demand for chips related to AI.

Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the first quarter:

Net sales: 8.8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) versus 8.5 billion euros expected

Net profit: 2.8 billion euros versus 2.5 billion euros expected

The organization previously forecast that its first-quarter sales would be between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros.

The Dutch firm commented it now sees 2026 net sales to be between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros, compared to a previous forecast of 34 billion euros to 39 billion euros. 

“The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet noted in a press release.

“Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers.”

This is the first quarter where ASML has not disclosed order numbes which is typically a closely-watched metric by investors. Fouquet noted Wednesday that ASML’s order intake “continues to be very strong.”

“The marketplace had been a little perturbed by ASML dropping its order numbers, but this is something it will need to get used to and there is enough other data out there to hold the organization to account,” Ben Barringer, head of digital systems research at Quilter Cheviot, noted in a note on Wednesday.

In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Barringer commented the marketplace was already expecting the kind of growth that ASML is now projecting for 2026. “The economy was a little bit ahead of them,” Barringer commented.

ASML also gave a slightly longer-term outlook. Fouquet mentioned the corporation could deliver 80 of its so-called low numerical aperture (NA) extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines in 2027, “if customer demand really underpins” it.

“This could disappoint somewhat with hopes 90 is possible in 2027,” Barclays mentioned in a note on Wednesday. This also touches on aspects of bear market.

Chipmaking ramp-up drives demand

The Dutch firm is often seen as a bellwether for chip demand as it makes the tools required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors.

One of its top customers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), last week reported record first-quarter revenue as demand for AI chips continues to remain strong.

There is a continued shortage of memory chips which has driven prices of that component to unprecedented highs. Memory is key to AI systems and data centers. As a result, South Korean firms Samsung and SK Hynix are planning to ramp up production capacity, which will require ASML machinery.

ASML remarked 51% of net sales of its novel tools in the first quarter went toward memory, versus 30% in the previous quarter. Customers in South Korea accounted for 45% of sales, while those in Taiwan represented 23%.

ASML is facing its own challenges, including headwinds in China, where it is not able to ship its most advanced machines because of export restrictions. Earlier this month, a group of bipartisan U.S. lawmakers introduced a law that would even ban ASML’s less, on the other hand-advanced machines for export to China. That law still needs to work its way through the U.S. legislative process.

System sales to China fell to 19% of overall sales in the first quarter, compared to 36% in the December quarter.