Eli Lilly’s sector share in India’s weight‑loss drug marketplace fell to 56% in March from 61% in February.

Indian generic drugmakers have launched 26 brands of semaglutide that directly compete with Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy.

The economy share of India’s most popular weight‑loss drugmaker, Eli Lilly, slipped in March, while rival Novo Nordisk held steady even as Indian generic drugmakers flooded the marketplace with lower‑priced copies.

Eli Lilly’s Indian economy share in the GLP‑1 category of weight‑loss drugs fell to 56% in March from 61% a month earlier, according to data from industry intelligence provider Pharmarack. Novo Nordisk’s industry share remained steady at 25%.

India is a critical economy, with around 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of the population classified as overweight or obese. The country is also known as the “world’s pharmacy,” with its well-developed generic drugs industry supplying around 20% of global generic medicines. 

Last month, the patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drugs, expired, triggering a wave of cheaper Indian generics. These were expected to hurt the sales of the Danish drugmaker, but early data show Eli Lilly has taken the bigger hit.

As semaglutide drugs get cheaper, the sales of Eli Lilly’s more expensive tirzepatide-based brands are likely to see further erosion, experts mentioned.

The Pharmarack report noted that 13 Indian generic drug companies have collectively launched 26 brands of semaglutide, which is prescribed for both weight depletion and diabetes management, in a matter of weeks. This also touches on aspects of earnings report.

Semaglutide on the rise

“The widening cost differential between semaglutide and tirzepatide, along with publicity around cheaper semaglutide generics, has led to this erosion of marketplace share [for Eli Lilly],” commented Vishal Manchanda, a pharma sector analyst at Indian brokerage Systematix Group.

He added that over time, tirzepatide may be restricted to wealthier patients with a strong focus on weight debt, as it remains more effective but comes at a higher price point.

Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro starts at around 13,800 rupees ($148) per month, mentioned Mumbai‑based diabetologist Rajiv Kovil, adding it is priced more than double Novo’s semaglutide drugs and ten times more than the cheapest of the generic versions.

Demand for anti‑obesity drugs — a category in which Mounjaro is more popular in India than semaglutide‑based treatments — is being driven by short‑term users seeking “quick fixes,” experts mentioned. These include the public looking to lose weight rapidly ahead of special occasions such as weddings.

Lower‑cost generic semaglutide has created “immediate noise, drawing patients and some prescribers towards affordability‑driven choices,” noted Kovil, adding that the shift is more pronounced among users seeking quick results.

Not only have the generic companies launched cheaper versions of semaglutide, but Novo Nordisk has also reduced its price for Ozempic by 38% and Wegovy by 48%, it mentioned in a press release on March 31.

Price wars

With these price reductions, Novo aims to keep its drugs “affordable for as many citizens with type 2 diabetes, overweight and obesity in India as possible,” Vikrant Shrotriya, managing director of Novo Nordisk India, remarked in the press release.

The cuts have significantly narrowed the premium between Novo Nordisk’s GLP‑1 drugs and generic semaglutide copies. The monthly cost of Novo’s semaglutide products now starts at 5,660 rupees, compared with around 4,200 rupees for higher‑end generics.

Some generic versions of semaglutide are available for as little as 1,290 rupees per month, commented Anant Kharad, director at Anand Rathi Investment Banking, who leads the firm’s pharma sector practice. He added that “physician confidence in generic quality will be the key variable to watch over the next 12–18 months.”

India’s GLP-1 marketplace is estimated to grow nearly five-fold to 50 billion rupees by 2030, and by some bullish estimates to more than $1.2 billion, experts stated, driven by rising obesity and diabetes prevalence and the entry of lower-cost generics.

Many Indian generic drugmakers have launched GLP‑1 drugs and several more are awaiting regulatory clearance, experts commented, adding that demand is likely to concentrate among just four to five players.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Zydus Lifesciences are among the Indian drugmakers best positioned to capture the GLP‑1 sector in India, Kharad remarked.