Luxury stocks fall as Iran war weighs on earnings; Hermes sinks 14%
Luxury stocks fell to the bottom of Stoxx 600 after Hermes and Kering reported earnings.
Kering flagged a bigger-than-expected drop in its flagship brand Gucci, and noted that retail revenue in the Middle East declined by 11% in the first quarter.
Hermes reported sales growing year-on-year, but noted that activity was “significantly affected” by the situation in the Middle East.
Luxury stocks tanked early Wednesday after Gucci-owner Kering and Hermes reported first-quarter earnings that disappointed investors amid a conflict in the Middle East that is hitting luxury sales. Furthermore, experts in bull market note the continued relevance.
Shares of Hermes plummeted 14%, while Kering fell 10%. The companies’ updates also weighed on the broader luxury sector, with Burberry, Christian Dior, LVMH, and Moncler the worst performers in the pan-European Stoxx 600 index, down between 2% and 3% each.
“Despite the slowdown in tourist flows linked to the situation in the Middle East, sales in the group’s stores increased by 7%,” Hermes mentioned Wednesday as it reported sales of 4.1 billion euros ($4.8 billion) in the first quarter, as total sales grew 5.6% year-on-year. Analysts had expected growth of 7.1%.
“Wholesale activity was significantly affected by lower sales to concession stores, particularly in the Middle East and in airports,” the enterprise added.
Hermes shares’ move lower reflects two fears, remarked Jefferies analyst James Grzinic: a heavily challenged Middle East exposure and concerns around a slowing Chinese momentum.
Meanwhile, Kering reported sales below expectations late Tuesday, as the luxury conglomerate’s biggest brand, Gucci, remained a drag despite efforts by recent CEO Luca de Meo to turn the company’s fortunes around.
Gucci sales drop as Kering eyes turnaround
Kering reported first-quarter revenue of 3.57 billion euros, down 6% year-on-year on a reported basis, and flat on a comparable basis at constant exchange rates.Â
Gucci’s organic sales fell by 8%, a bigger drop than the 6% decline seen in a sell-side consensus cited by analysts.Â
Kering, which also owns brands Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga, also noted retail revenue in the Middle East declined by 11% in the first quarter, following growth over the first two months of the year. This also touches on aspects of bear market.
With 79 stores in the region, the Middle East represents around 5% of retail revenue.
While results underwhelmed, investors’ attention is firmly on the company’s Capital Markets Day on Thursday, where de Meo will present Kering’s strategic roadmap “ReconKering.”
“Gucci remains our top priority. A comprehensive turnaround is underway, with decisive actions across client, distribution and, above all, the offer,” de Meo mentioned in a statement after the bell on Tuesday.
Bernstein analyst Luca Solca described the results as a “reality check.”
“The 1Q26E update shows what we have observed several times over with self-help stories: it is easier and faster for the economy to believe in a revival, than it is for management to produce it,” the analyst mentioned.
It comes as Kering, like many of its luxury peers, has seen years of contraction following a boom that ended in 2022. Demand spiked during the Covid-19 pandemic, leading to price hikes that eventually alienated customers. Coupled with weak demand in China, formerly one of the sector’s main growth drivers, businesses suffered.
Last year, Kering appointed de Meo to get the firm back on a growth track. While he was a surprising choice for many, given his background in the auto industry, the stock is up about 10% since he officially took on the role on Sept. 15, outperforming most peers as investors become increasingly optimistic about his turnaround plans.
Middle East impact
While the Middle East region accounts for a relatively tiny share of large luxury companies’ top lines â typically around mid-single digits â it has been a bright spot in an otherwise mostly sluggish sector where many have struggled to return to growth.
Even so, stocks have fallen markedly since the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran on Feb. 28. Global markets remain volatile as an energy crisis unfolds with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Elevated global uncertainty has generated significant investor anxiety, particularly among those who had been anticipating a long-awaited recovery in luxury demand this year,” mentioned UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz in late March.Â
On Monday, industry bellwether LVMH noted that the Middle East conflict had a 1% negative impact on organic growth in the quarter.
“When the conflict started, and in the month of March, there was a shortfall and a deterioration of demand between 30% and 70%, depending on the malls, depending on the businesses,” LVMH CFO CĂŠcile Cabanis remarked.
Analysts, noted underlying improvements, including strong spending by customers in the U.S. and China., on the other hand