Robinhood is expected to see a significant boost in its prediction market revenue as the upcoming football season approaches. Analysts anticipate that the platform’s joint venture with Susquehanna, known as Rothera, will serve as a primary catalyst for growth throughout the third and fourth quarters of 2026. This optimism follows confirmation that Rothera has secured regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer event contracts centered on football wins and point spreads.

The momentum for this growth was established earlier this summer, when the World Cup drove substantial volume across prediction platforms. Given the massive popularity of American football compared to soccer within the United States, experts suggest that the NFL and NCAA seasons will likely outperform previous engagement metrics. Between June and August, Robinhood experienced an 88% increase in average monthly prediction market volumes, signaling a strong appetite among its user base for event-based derivatives.

Market dynamics are also shifting as Robinhood pivots away from third-party platforms. Since the launch of Rothera in June, approximately 23% of prediction volume has migrated from Kalshi to the new joint venture. While Robinhood users previously accounted for a significant portion of Kalshi’s total volume, that share has dwindled to the mid-single digits as the company focuses on its own regulated exchange. Projections suggest that Robinhood could see nearly 30 billion event contracts traded between September and December, potentially generating hundreds of millions in annualized revenue.

Key Takeaways

• Robinhood’s joint venture, Rothera, has received CFTC approval to offer football-related prediction contracts.
• Analysts have raised Robinhood’s price target and earnings estimates, citing the upcoming football season as a major revenue driver.
• Robinhood is successfully capturing market share from Kalshi, with a significant portion of user volume shifting to its proprietary platform.

Editor’s Analysis & Impact

The expansion of Robinhood into the prediction market space represents a strategic diversification of its revenue streams, moving beyond traditional equity and crypto trading. By leveraging a regulated derivatives exchange, the company is tapping into the growing demand for event-based betting, which offers high engagement potential. The shift from relying on third-party platforms like Kalshi to an internal joint venture allows Robinhood to capture the full economic value of its user base’s activity. If the football season meets volume expectations, it could solidify prediction markets as a core pillar of Robinhood’s long-term financial health. However, the company remains subject to evolving regulatory scrutiny regarding event contracts, which will be a critical factor to monitor as these markets mature and gain mainstream adoption.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is Rothera?
A: Rothera is a prediction market joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, operating as a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Q: Why is the football season expected to impact Robinhood's revenue?
A: Because football is significantly more popular in the U.S. than soccer, analysts expect the high engagement seen during the World Cup to be eclipsed by the volume of NFL and NCAA football-related event contracts.