Tariff refunds unlikely to benefit consumers, CNBC CFO Council survey finds

President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda was struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year, and a judge later ordered the government to prepare to potentially pay billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs.

But companies do not plan to share any tariff refunds with customers, according to a majority of chief financial officers responding to the quarterly CNBC CFO Council survey.

Even though the Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda — with a judge later ordering the government to prepare to potentially pay billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs — consumers shouldn’t expect to see any cash back.

That’s according to the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey. While 12 of the 25 chief financial officers stated their corporation plans to apply for tariff refunds, none stated they intend to directly share that wealth with customers.

Six of those polled remarked they did not plan to pass on any portion of the tariff refunds they might receive, seven were not sure and 12 answered “not applicable.”

Ten of the executives in the C-suite said they think it could take a year or longer to receive repayment, and only three of the CFOs expected repayment this year. The other 12 CFOs mentioned they do not plan to apply for tariff refunds.

The CFO Council survey is a sampling of views from chief financial officers at large organizations across sectors of the U.S. economy. CFO Council members took the survey between March 23 and April 2.

Meanwhile, the legal battle over Trump’s tariffs is far from over. The same day the Supreme Court ruled in February that “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal, Trump announced a novel “global tariff” rate of 10% under a separate statute, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, for a period of 150 days. He later noted he would boost global tariffs to 15%.

Tariffs are taxes on imports from foreign nations and are paid by U.S. entities that import the item. Businesses often bear some of the cost and pass on the rest to consumers through higher prices. In this way, tariffs have had an overall inflationary impact on the economy, economists say.

Even if companies were to receive refunds, the CNBC CFO Council survey results are “not a surprise,” noted Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. Furthermore, experts in wall street note the continued relevance.

After factoring in the hefty toll on U.S. businesses, including higher costs and supply chain adjustments to reduce tariff exposure, CFOs may be thinking “this is just compensation,” Zandi commented, “they are going to hold on to those [refunds].”

The Trump administration may pressure companies to pass those savings on, he added, “but that will be very difficult to do.”

Where tariff rebate efforts stand

The president has floated the idea of putting some tariff revenue directly in the hands of Americans, in the form of a tariff dividend check. any such broad, on the other hand-based benefit program would require legislation passed by Congress.

Both Democrats and Republicans have tried to capitalize on Trump’s tariff agenda ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. No legislation has been approved yet, although several tariff refund bills have been introduced in Congress. This also touches on aspects of wall street.

Last year, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, which pitched a stimulus check funded with tariff revenue. The Senate referred that bill to the Committee on Finance, where it remains.

In March of this year, Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., introduced another bill that would create a new tax rebate for those hit by higher costs for everyday items due to the now-defunct tariff regime. Heinrich’s bill, dubbed the Tariff Refunds for Working Families Act, would tap the $166 billion collected by the tariffs to fund the novel rebate. 

That legislation has also been referred to the Committee on Finance.

Other efforts, including the Trump Tariff Rebate Act introduced by Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, are sitting in House committees. 

“The likelihood of tariff refunds passing in Congress still seems remote,” remarked certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate. 

“A Republican-backed bill would all but admit that tariffs were a policy mistake, even if it would be initially popular to send out checks,” he mentioned. “Democrats have little incentive to support such a measure ahead of the midterms, since the costs of tariffs and higher gas prices are widely associated with Republicans.”

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