India finds itself in a precarious geopolitical position, closely monitoring the anticipated summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For over two decades, successive U.S. administrations have viewed India as a crucial strategic partner, essential for counterbalancing China’s expanding influence across the Indo-Pacific. However, a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy towards a transactional approach, particularly during Trump’s speculated second term, has raised concerns in New Delhi about its diminishing role should Washington prioritize a grand bargain with Beijing.

The dynamic between the U.S. and India has seen fluctuations. During his first term, President Trump notably challenged America’s traditional China policy and significantly bolstered the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic partnership involving Australia, India, Japan, and the United States aimed at a peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific. This period also saw India benefit from the ‘China+1’ strategy, as U.S. firms began diversifying supply chains away from China. However, a different tone has emerged more recently, characterized by strained trade relations and tariffs between Washington and New Delhi. Experts suggest this shift indicates a move away from value-driven foreign policy, potentially weakening the narrative of India as a critical counterweight to China.

Analysts emphasize that India must proactively demonstrate its strategic value to avoid being overlooked. Ronak D. Desai, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, suggests that for the U.S.-India relationship to remain robust, it must yield more tangible outcomes in critical sectors such as defense, maritime security, critical minerals, energy, and manufacturing. The prospect of a ‘G2’ concept – where the U.S. and China are seen as the primary global negotiating partners – is a significant concern for New Delhi, which fears marginalization as a middle power. Former Indian ambassador Nirupama Rao has pointed to President Trump’s past conciliatory remarks towards Xi Jinping, highlighting a preference for ‘strong-armed leaders.’

Amidst long-standing border disputes and fraught relations with Beijing, India’s vigilance regarding the U.S.-China summit is particularly acute. The outcome of these high-level discussions could reshape the delicate balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, significantly impacting India’s strategic standing and its complex relationship with both global superpowers. New Delhi’s focus remains on ensuring its strategic importance is undeniable, regardless of the evolving dynamics between Washington and Beijing.