Financial traders are expressing significant doubt regarding Iran’s assertion that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could return to pre-conflict levels within one month of a potential peace agreement with the United States. Despite recent reports suggesting a draft framework for a memorandum of understanding, market participants on the prediction platform Kalshi remain cautious, assigning only a 38% probability that transit flows will normalize by July 1.

This metric for normalcy is defined by a seven-day moving average of transit volume exceeding 60, as tracked by IMF PortWatch data. While the current 38% outlook represents a slight increase from the 32% probability observed earlier in the week, it remains notably lower than the 50% confidence level seen over the weekend, when speculation regarding an imminent diplomatic breakthrough was at its peak. The White House has officially denied the existence of any formal framework or agreement with Iran, further complicating the outlook for investors.

Looking further ahead, market sentiment appears more optimistic regarding an August timeline. Traders currently place a 60% probability on traffic flows returning to normal by August 1, an increase from the previous 50% estimate. Nevertheless, the volatility in these predictions underscores the ongoing uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions in the region and the lack of verified progress in diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran.