New meteorological forecasts indicate a growing likelihood that the developing El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific Ocean could evolve into one of the most intense on record. Experts are issuing warnings of unprecedented global temperatures and severe humanitarian consequences should this powerful climatic event materialize.

The Pacific region has been experiencing rapid warming, with recent data showing sea surface temperatures approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal — a key indicator often used to signify El Niño’s onset. This natural warming cycle is anticipated to intensify significantly over the coming months, potentially reaching its peak as a “very strong” or “super El Niño” by autumn. Scientists are particularly concerned about the potential ramifications for worldwide weather patterns, including the increased probability of 2027 becoming the warmest year ever recorded.

Forecasting agencies are expressing heightened confidence in their projections. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests El Niño is poised to begin within the current month, raising the probability to a two-in-three chance that it will be strong or even very strong by winter. Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA, described the rapid warming observed in the tropical Pacific as a “rare occurrence” if it continues at its current pace, representing a swift transition from the recent La Niña cooling pattern to a potentially potent El Niño within a single year. Similarly, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), which employs a stricter criterion requiring sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific to exceed 0.8 degrees Celsius above average, also anticipates a very strong El Niño.

A “strong” or “super El Niño” is typically defined when the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Forecasts from NOAA, BoM, and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are largely in agreement. Some ECMWF models even project temperatures exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius by autumn, which Johnson describes as a “historically strong event.” Alarmingly, certain data suggests temperatures could even surpass 3 degrees Celsius, potentially exceeding the 2.7 degrees Celsius recorded during the 1877 El Niño – an event that triggered catastrophic global climate disruption, including widespread famine and drought across continents, alongside severe flooding in other regions.

Such a powerful El Niño is expected to significantly boost the global average temperature, typically by around 0.2 degrees Celsius. Professor Liz Stephens, an expert in climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading, warns that record global temperatures are highly probable next year, especially if the event proves to be very strong. While direct weather impacts will be pronounced around the Pacific, every El Niño is unique in its far-reaching global disruptions. Anticipated consequences include increased flooding in northern Peru, southern Ecuador, East Africa, central Asia, and parts of North America. Conversely, it often suppresses Atlantic tropical storms, potentially leading to quieter hurricane seasons, but also to reduced rainfall and drought conditions in Central America. Furthermore, a heightened risk of drought and wildfires is projected for Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America, threatening agricultural output and global food supplies. The potential for reduced crop yields due to drought or flooding could drive food prices even higher, exacerbating poverty and leading to significant humanitarian challenges, particularly in regions already facing crises.